Our team has produced a report that considers the ways in which industrial energy and material demand reduction can contribute to a low carbon future for the UK.
This report is a synthesis of some of the research conducted by the centre thus far. It highlights key areas of interest and possibilities for further research.
Read the full report here: CIEMAP REPORT
Jonathan Norman has published a new paper in Resources, Conservation & Recycling. Read the paper here.
The steel industry is the world’s largest industrial source of CO2 emissions. Recent UK economic policies have led to reduced domestic steel production giving an apparent reduction in national emissions. However, demand for goods made from steel has not reduced. Emissions have thus been transferred not reduced and implementation of UK climate policies may in future expand this ‘carbon leakage.’ This paper explores how future UK demand for goods made from steel might be supplied while satisfying national climate policies, and how this will influence global CO2 emissions. Current flows and stocks of steel are estimated from existing databases. Evidence from other developed economies suggests that per capita stocks are tending towards a saturation level so future demand is forecast from population growth and the expected rate of replacement of a stable stock. The carbon intensities of five different steel-making routes are used to predict the allowed scale of future domestic steel production within the industrial emissions allowances set in four energy pathways defined by the UK Government. The remaining requirement for steel must be sourced offshore and the associated emissions are predicted, to give an estimate of the global emissions arising from final demand in the UK. The results show that current UK climate strategy may have a limited effect in reducing the CO2 emissions of the global steel industry, unless the UK shifts towards producing more of its own steel products with domestic secondary steel-making. This option would also increase the security of UK supply and support an expansion of UK manufacturing.
Researchers in Leeds (Marco Sakai and John Barrett) examined the effectiveness of border carbon adjustments (BCAs), which have figured prominently as policy instruments to address competitiveness concerns in countries subject to a carbon price. The authors estimated the volume of emissions that could be potentially taxed by BCAs, and particularly focus on the effects of trade provisions and country and sectoral coverage. Their findings indicate that trade provisions can significantly reduce the scope and effectiveness of BCAs. The principle of best available technology and exclusion of electricity reduce the tariffs considerably. The authors argue that BCAs are not optimal policy tools to address carbon leakage concerns, and consequently alternative options should be sought.
Read the paper here.
Researchers (Kate Scott and John Barrett) at Leeds collaborated with researchers at UCL to investigate changes to the UK energy system if emissions embodied in fuels and energy technologies extracted and manufactured overseas to help meet UK final demand for energy are mitigated in the UK’s territorial target. The model outcomes, which favour an increase in nuclear energy due to cost and deployment assumptions in the energy system model, are discussed in the context of technology barriers, and suggest reductions in end-use energy demand could be a more effective way to meet UK climate targets through energy policy.
Read the full article here.
Anne Owen’s paper is featured in the latest issue of Resources, Conservation and Recycling.
Read the full article here.
Material efficiency, reducing the amount of new material inputs per given level of service or output, can improve both the resource efficiency of an economy and reduce demand for energy and GHG emissions intensive materials. It requires a change in the way materials, components and final products are used along the supply chain with associated impacts on employment. Domestic policy support for material efficiency can be hindered by concerns that reducing demand for new materials will impact on employment. A multi-method approach for evaluating the employment impacts of material efficiency strategies across different products and regions is presented. It is applied to two case studies that could reduce demand for new steel in the UK: car clubs and re-using steel sections. Industry interviews supplemented by a literature review reveal how sector labour intensity, product prices and sales volumes might change along the mobility and construction supply chains in the short-term as a consequence of introducing these strategies. A static multi-regional input-output model is used to estimate the immediate direct and indirect supply chain employment impacts of increasing the material efficiency of steel use in the UK. The principal finding of this paper, based on industry expectations of feasible rates of deployment, is that the initial, immediate consequences of these actions would not adversely affect employment prospects in the UK. This is partly because car clubs can stimulate demand for new vehicles and deconstructing rather than demolishing buildings is labour intensive, substituting domestic labour for imported steel. These initial findings should motivate further research on the opportunities for material efficiency.
Many multiregional input–output (MRIO) databases are used to calculate consumption-based accounts. Results feature in climate policy discussion on emissions reduction responsibilities; yet studies show that outcomes produced by each database differ. This paper compares the emissions associated with value chains from Eora, EXIOBASE, GTAP and WIOD. Structural path analysis identifies the largest paths in each database and the differences in common paths are calculated. For the top 100 value chain paths that contain the largest difference, structural path decomposition is used to identify the contribution each part of the value chain makes towards the difference. The results identify and quantify key flows that are the cause of difference in the databases. From these, we can conclude that key MRIO database construction decisions, such as using the residence or territorial principle for emissions allocation and whether energy spends are reallocated based on physical data, are the major causes of differences.
Read the paper here.
Marco Sakai and John Barrett have written a chapter in The Sustainability Practitioner’s Guide to Social Analysis and Assessment. Their chapter is titled ‘Reducing the Carbon Footprint and its Implications for Global Employment: The Labour Productivity of Carbon.’
Read the chapter here.
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CIE-MAP researcher Kate Scott published a paper in PNAS on understanding the roles of energy production and international trade in driving pressures on (often scarce) freshwater resources. The authors coupled a trade and hydrological model to examine pressures on freshwater resources associated with energy production across the global economy. While the electric and gas sectors induce freshwater consumption predominantly within countries where demand originates (91% and 81%, respectively), the petroleum sector exhibits a high international footprint (56%). The analysis demonstrates the importance of broadening the discourse on energy policy from greenhouse gas emissions to address issues including freshwater scarcity, the role of international trade, and wider environmental and societal considerations.
A new research paper written by Jannik Giesekam and John Barrett has been published in the October 2015 edition of Building Research and Information. The paper is titled ‘Construction sector views on low carbon building materials‘.
As is the case in a number of countries, the UK construction industry faces the challenge of expanding production whilst making ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions. Embodied carbon constitutes a growing proportion of whole-life carbon emissions and accounts for a significant share of total UK emissions. A key mitigation strategy is increasing the use of alternative materials with lower embodied carbon. The economic, technical, practical and cultural barriers to the uptake of these alternatives are explored through a survey of construction professionals and interviews with industry leaders. Perceptions of high cost, ineffective allocation of responsibility, industry culture, and the poor availability of product and building-level carbon data and benchmarks constitute significant barriers. Opportunities to overcome these barriers include earlier engagement of professionals along the supply chain, effective use of whole-life costing, and changes to contract and tender documents. A mounting business case exists for addressing embodied carbon, but has yet to be effectively disseminated. In the meantime, the moral convictions of individual clients and practitioners have driven early progress. However, this research underscores the need for new regulatory drivers to complement changing attitudes if embodied carbon is to be established as a mainstream construction industry concern.